HEALTH

Stringent Restrictions: One Million To Die In China

<h4>Stringent Restrictions<&sol;h4>&NewLine;<p><strong><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;openlife&period;ng&sol;">OpenLife Nigeria<&sol;a><&sol;strong> reports that according to new projections from a United States of America based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation&comma; IHME&comma; China&&num;8217&semi;s abrupt lifting of stringent COVID-19 restrictions could result in an explosion of cases and over a million deaths through 2023&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;According to the group&&num;8217&semi;s projections&comma; cases in China would peak around April 1&comma; when deaths would reach 322&comma;000&period; About a third of China&&num;8217&semi;s population will have been infected by then&comma; IHME Director Christopher Murray said&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;China&&num;8217&semi;s national health authority has not reported any official COVID deaths since the lifting of COVID restrictions&period; The last official deaths were reported on December 3&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;However&comma; China lifted some of the world&&num;8217&semi;s toughest COVID restrictions in December after unprecedented public protests and is now experiencing a spike in infections&comma; with fears COVID could sweep across its 1&period;4 billion population during next month&&num;8217&semi;s Lunar New Year holiday&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;&&num;8220&semi;Nobody thought they would stick to zero-COVID as long as they did&comma;&&num;8221&semi; Murray said on Friday when the IHME projections were released online&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;China&&num;8217&semi;s zero-COVID policy may have been effective at keeping earlier variants of the virus at bay&comma; but the high transmissibility of Omicron variants made it impossible to sustain&comma; he said&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;The independent modeling group at the University of Washington in Seattle&comma; which has been relied on by governments and companies throughout the pandemic&comma; drew on provincial data and information from a recent Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;&&num;8220&semi;China has since the original Wuhan outbreak barely reported any deaths&period; That is why we looked to Hong Kong to get an idea of the infection fatality rate&comma;&&num;8221&semi; Murray said&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;For its forecasts&comma; IHME also uses information on vaccination rates provided by the Chinese government as well as assumptions on how various provinces will respond as infection rates increase&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Other experts expect some 60&percnt; of China&&num;8217&semi;s population will eventually be infected&comma; with a peak expected in January&comma; hitting vulnerable populations&comma; such as the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions&comma; the hardest&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Key concerns include China&&num;8217&semi;s large pool of susceptible individuals&comma; the use of less effective vaccines and low vaccine coverage among those 80 and older&comma; who are at greatest risk of severe disease&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Disease modelers at the <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;reuters&period;com&sol;">University of Hong Kong<&sol;a> predict that lifting COVID restrictions and simultaneously reopening all provinces in December 2022 through January 2023 would result in 684 deaths per million people during that timeframe&comma; according to a paper released on Wednesday on the Medrxiv preprint server that has yet to undergo peer review&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Based on China&&num;8217&semi;s population of 1&period;41 billion&comma; and without measures such as a mass vaccination booster campaign&comma; that amounts to 964&comma;400 deaths&period; Another study published July 2022 in Nature Medicine by researchers at the School of Public Health at Fudan University in Shanghai predicted an Omicron wave absent restrictions would result in 1&period;55 million deaths over a six month period&comma; and peak demand for intensive care units of 15&period;6 times higher than existing capacity&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Yanzhong Huang&comma; a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations&comma; said there are 164 million people in China with diabetes&comma; a risk factor for poor COVID outcomes&period; There are also 8 million people aged 80 and older who have never been vaccinated&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Chinese officials are now encouraging individuals to get boosted from a list of newer Chinese-made shots&comma; however&comma; the government is still reluctant to use foreign vaccines&comma; Huang said&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;China&&num;8217&semi;s National Health Commission said on Friday it was ramping up vaccinations and building stocks of ventilators and essential drugs&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;<strong>Source&colon; Reuters<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;

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