Accelerating Nigeria’s 30-30-30 Vision With Flexible Gas Will Reduce Dependence On Expensive Diesel—Wärtsilä

<h4>Speaking last week at the Smart Energy Forum in Lagos and Abuja in the presence of Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s top energy decision-makers&comma; senior energy experts from Wärtsilä presented the latest results of an in-depth study which models the most cost-effective and reliable energy mix that can be built each year in Nigeria&period; The presentation&comma; made available to <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;openlife&period;ng&sol;">OpenLife<&sol;a> by Jonathan Collings of Alesia Communications&comma; is reproduced below<&sol;h4>&NewLine;<p>Nigeria is the largest and one of the fastest growing economies in Africa&comma; yet despite a wealth of natural resources&comma; the country continues to struggle with acute electricity shortages&comma; which constrain its economic development&period; To combat this&comma; last year the Nigerian government formally launched &&num;8220&semi;the Decade of Gas&&num;8221&semi;&comma; setting gas development and utilization as a national priority&period; Identifying the most cost-effective and sustainable power generation strategies was the theme of this week&&num;8217&semi;s Smart Energy Forum in Lagos&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><strong>Modelling long-term energy system solutions<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>One of the highlights of the event was the presentation of Wärtsilä&&num;8217&semi;s most recent 2022 to 2040 Analysis of Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s National Power System&comma; using the advanced Plexos modelling tool to quantify system level benefits of different technologies in the Nigerian power system&period; The model is used to analyse and identify the optimal capacity expansion for the country&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;The model shows that the country requires more aggressive capacity additions than the current situations&comma; referred as business-as-usual scenario&comma; in order to achieve the country&&num;8217&semi;s stated 30-30-30 vision&period; But looking beyond 2030&comma; and by mapping the country&&num;8217&semi;s solar and wind potential for renewable energy&comma; together with transmission data from five major regions&comma; an advanced 30-30-30 scenario can be envisaged which would generate additional power and significant cost savings&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;This advanced scenario recommends the installation of 45 GW of low-cost renewables in the north and west of the country by 2040&comma; while concentrating 43 GW of gas-fired internal combustion engine &lpar;ICE&rpar; power plants in the southern regions with access to low-cost locally sourced gas&period; Strengthening the transmission capacity between north and south will greatly benefit the central regions as well&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;As more capacity is added to the system&comma; the cost of electricity is predicted to fall drastically within the first years&comma; as locally sourced gas fuels more cost-efficient gas power generation to overtake expensive diesel&period; With the advanced scenario&comma; cumulative saving to 2040 of up to &dollar;430 billion can be achieved when compared to the business-as-usual scenario&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><strong>A flexible solution to meet the needs of the Nigerian market<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>For Wärtsilä&comma; the choice of power generation technology is as important as the choice of fuel&period; In a system that maximizes the use of low-cost renewables&comma; being able to rely on flexible power technologies becomes paramount&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;In this context&comma; ICE power plants become the technology of choice because they are flexible by design&period; They have a high operating efficiency&comma; even at partial load&comma; and are made to cope with regular start and stops&period; On the other hand&comma; combined cycle gas turbines &lpar;CCGT&rpar; lack the flexibility to match the fluctuations in electricity demand&period; They rely on a consistent and pressurised gas supply and are most efficient when operated close to full capacity&period; They are not suited to offset the intermittent supply of renewables&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Detailed technology comparison between CCGT and ICE power plants show that for an equivalent 350 MW plant running 8&comma;000 hours per year&comma; Wärtsilä&&num;8217&semi;s solution saves between 11 to 17 million US dollars per year compared to CCGT solution&comma; thanks to its better performance in hot climates&comma; better part-load efficiency and lower investment cost&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;But there is more&period; Flexible ICE power plants offer several other advantages relevant in Nigeria&period; Thanks to their modular design&comma; ICE power projects are easy to construct&comma; fully scalable and can be deployed in phases&period; They can be ramped-up or down quickly to adjust to demand&comma; and also provide a great hedge against fuel supply risk&comma; as its engines can be operated on natural gas&comma; Diesel&comma; HFO or biofuels&period; What is more&comma; they require little water to operate&colon; Their water consumption is less than 1 &percnt; compared to the CCGT technology&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Today&comma; Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s electricity system faces a perfect storm&period; Small&comma; inefficient&comma; expensive&comma; and polluting diesel generators are widely used to compensate for weaknesses in the country&&num;8217&semi;s grid capacity&period; Despite recent improvements&comma; the gas supply system is not fully stable&comma; which places additional strain on country&&num;8217&semi;s still fragile electricity network&period;<br &sol;>&NewLine;Wärtsilä is convinced that building flexibility into the system by investing in gas engine power plants can provide a stable and reliable long-term solution to Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s energy challenges&period; As Wale Yusuff&comma; Managing Director of Wärtsilä M&amp&semi;P Services Nigeria Ltd&comma; concluded at the end of the event&colon; &&num;8220&semi;It is clear that IPPs can provide an important source of investment for new power projects&period; A prototype has been established and electricity tariffs are crystalizing at a fair price for the Nigerian economy and for consumers&period; At Wärtsilä&comma; we understand the need to be innovative and mindful regarding off-take and financing&period; With flexibility and reasonably sized projects&comma; we are convinced that together with our Partners and Stakeholders&comma; we can generate sustainable power with improved impacts for the environment and the economy of Nigeria&period;&&num;8221&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;