BUSINESS

US-China trade war threatens African economies

&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Africa Q3 2019 report by Institute of Chartered Accountants&NewLine;in England and Wales&comma; ICAEW&comma; &nbsp&semi;indicates&NewLine;that most African countries are bearing the brunt of the US-China trade war&comma; as&NewLine;well as a slump in commodity prices which is greatly affecting exporters&period; <&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various&NewLine;regions including East Africa which is set to grow by 6&period;3&percnt;&comma; West and Central&NewLine;Africa at 3&period;4&percnt;&comma; Franc Zone at 4&period;7&percnt;&comma; and Southern Africa at 1&period;3&percnt;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">The report&comma; which was commissioned by ICAEW&comma; produced by Oxford Economics and made available to OpenLife by African Media Agency&comma; AMA&comma; predicts that Africa&&num;8217&semi;s growth rate is set for a sluggish pace after a disruption in oil production in North Africa and with low international oil prices in Francophone Africa&period; The situation will be further fuelled by policy uncertainty&comma; concerns over debt-landed parastatals and high unemployment in South Africa&period;<br> Speaking during the launch of the latest report&comma; Michael Armstrong&comma; ICAEW&&num;8217&semi;s Regional Director for Middle East&comma; Asia and Africa&comma; said that the growth of some regions in Africa is being held back by the fluctuating price of oil&period; &&num;8220&semi;The growth forecast for the Franc Zone this year is 4&period;7&percnt;&comma; due to a structurally low international oil price environment&comma; which continues to weigh on growth in the region&&num;8217&semi;s oil exporters&comma;&&num;8221&semi; said Mr&period; Armstrong&period;<br> &&num;8220&semi;While still expected to remain the strongest growing region on the continent&comma; East Africa is projected to record a slightly lower real GDP growth rate of 6&period;3&percnt; this year compared to 2018&period;The fact that the countries in the region are not as reliant on commodities as sources of income shields them from global shocks&&num;8221&semi;&comma; he added&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Delving deeper&NewLine;into the East African outlook&comma; Uganda has a favourable economic outlook on the&NewLine;development of its hydrocarbons sector and GDP growth is forecast above 6&percnt; p&period;a&period;&NewLine;over the medium term&period; However&comma; extended delays in oil exploration and the&NewLine;widening twin deficits &lpar;due to an increase in public debt and increasing&NewLine;capital goods imports to support the nascent hydrocarbons sector&rpar; pose&NewLine;significant downside risks&period; Uganda&comma; in partnership with Tanzania&comma; plans to&NewLine;build the East African Crude Oil Pipeline which is worth &dollar;3&period;5bn&period;<br>&NewLine;In North Africa&comma; the GDP growth rate is forecast to slow to 2&period;8&percnt; due to&NewLine;fluctuations in oil production in Libya which compounded the effect of weak&NewLine;Eurozone demand on the region&&num;8217&semi;s other economies&period;<br>&NewLine;Regional GDP growth for Central and West Africa is forecast at 3&period;4&percnt; in 2019&period;&NewLine;This incorporates the impact of the Nigerian economy&&num;8217&semi;s slow start to the year&comma;&NewLine;as pipeline damage curtailed its oil production&period;<br>&NewLine;Southern Africa is forecast to keep struggling&comma; with a growth rate of 1&period;3&percnt; in&NewLine;2019&period; The region&&num;8217&semi;s economic anchor&comma; South Africa&comma; is expected to show&NewLine;nearly-flat growth because of policy uncertainty&comma; concerns over debt-laden&NewLine;parastatals and high unemployment&period; In the region&&num;8217&semi;s other countries growth has&NewLine;been slowed by supply-side challenges&comma; notably adverse weather conditions in&NewLine;the wake of two cyclones&comma; a regional rainfall deficit and power rationing&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

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