<p></p>



<p><strong><em>Bola
Amhed Tinubu, governor of Lagos State 1999-2007 and national leader of the All
Progressives Congress, APC, has been the butt of analysis by public affairs
commentators for a reasonable length of time now. The result of OpenLife’s  ;test  ;of
the  ;opinions and analysis in the
political laboratory indicates that it is no longer a rumour, writes </em></strong><strong>Eromon
Oleabhiele</strong></p>



<p>What
seems the end of assumption for Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s interest in 2023
presidential contest was a recent statement credited to Kaduna State governor,
Mallam Nasir El-Rufai .</p>



<p>The
APC chieftain argued ; that there is no
justification for Northerner to take over after Buhari’s eight ; years, adding that the Presidency should
rightly return to the Southern part of the country. Although the governor,
acclaimed to be a major strategist of the ruling All Progressives Congress,
APC, did not specify which of the southern geopolitical zones should take the
Presidency in 2023, he argued that it would be unjustified for the North to
seek to retain the Presidency after President Muhammadu Buhari might have
completed his eight years.</p>



<p>Indeed,
it is difficult to predict the indices of the future. And in the search
for certainties in a deep conical mesh of uncertainties, analysis can easily
slide into paralysis. ; Yet it is an
intellectual adventure, albeit more academic than just science when we sieve
through daily happenstance, trying to collect and observe patterns that may
give relevance and insight to the political probabilities of 2023 Nigeria’s
presidency. Again, if by chance we pick on a remote prospect and established an
inference, it would be considered a milestone! </p>



<p>Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is the most apparent for
contemplation as we row the boat to 2023. By all means, the fairytale weaved
around him and his ambition is a testament of the potentiality and efficacy of
his presidential desperation or the lack of it thereof. The National Leader of
the All Progressive Congress was imperial to the formation of the party and he
put in an immersive graft in the reselling of the idea of a reformed democrat
in Muhammadu Buhari whose stock before 2015 was below market value for the top
job everywhere else except the North. Tinubu put in this shift while keeping
his own ambition close enough to be smelt, yet far enough to let PMB and
Osinbajo shine at significant intervals.</p>



<p>But before we pick the knives to dissect applicable
information to institute a point as to the odds of Tinubu’s drive towards Aso
Rock, a dive into American author: Frank Herbert’s work on his award winning
science fiction series Children of Dune published in 1976 helps us cut the
journey by half when he wrote about the forte of ambition in relation to one of
his characters. Herbert stated that ‘Ambition tends to remain undisturbed by
realities.’ In furtherance, he declared conspicuously that ‘If you live in bad
faith, lies would appear to you as truth.’</p>



<p>In the Nigerian political scene, perhaps anywhere else
that patronizes political dramatics as an effectual weapon for both evil and
benign, lies can be cloaked in truth, while truth with little effort takes the
form of lies and sold to the people. For Tinubu, he has perfected the act of
shielding his ambition in the garment of humility and sometimes ―silence, while
his PR machinery strategically deploys his campaign in systematic hybrid
layouts that plays on perception and cognition. And it works! </p>



<p>The most potent threat to Tinubu’s ambition is himself.
It was Congressman Williams L Clay that intuited that ‘This is quite a game,
politics. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only
permanent interest.’Tinubu on his part apparently may not have built up a large
portfolio of enemies, but since he spurred the Buhari presidency in two
consecutive occasions against many backdrops and for reasons majority assume to
be detrimental to his people and incremental for his ambition, he has left a
catalogue of distrust in his wake, such that is too wide to keep count yet too
narrow to convince enough voters through. </p>



<p>Ironically, employing the Frank Herbert assertion makes
Tinubu’s ambition yet still his biggest strength. His psychological tendency to
ignore the glaring realities and predictions, and like a snail destined for the
cool of a shade keeps crawling slowly but steadily is a mental capacity possess
only by great conquerors. This inclination alone has the propensity to trudge
him through the bile of negativity and he’ll emerge unruffled as the follow-up
to the Buhari administration.</p>



<p>In the first week of January, 2020, Tinubu was a guest at
the Presidential Villa, Abuja. That convergence drew divergent interpretations
which further gave credence to the 2023 plans. What seems more apparent than
fiction is that Tinubu would be heavily building on the support of his
traditional base, the South West and also pertinent and more importantly would
be the seal of approval from the cabals in the North. And while the South East
appears completely out of touch with him, the South South remains increasingly
indifferent. Presumptuously, his dwindling popularity in his natal region has
been attributed to his resolute loyalty to the henchmen behind the throne at
the Villa. How he hoped to conserve a considerable independence to appease the
Yorubas and yet maintain allegiance with Aso Rock to keep his ambition alive
would be the most curial melting point before 2023. </p>



<p>But these may well be microscopic when confronted with
the issue of religion and running mate. The rise of religious jingoism has
created a colossal divide so much so that every position is now rotational by
default between Christian and Muslim. Tinubu being a Muslim and succeeding
Buhari, another Muslim is a longshot and an almost impossibility in today’s
Nigeria. That is something Tinubu would have to chew on seriously. And if this
is not enough to put a spike in the wheels of Tinubu’s ride to victory, then
Mahata Ghandi who served us an indication that ‘Those who believe religion and
politics aren’t connected, don’t understand either’ would have to eat his word
in the grave. </p>



<p>Tinubu, according
to sources, is very wealthy. Among other wealth, he is said to own the
250-hectare land valued at about
N35billion, strategically located at the Ajah junction on Lekki Road. Information has it that was
initially meant for a General Hospital for the people of Eti-Osa Local
Government but was taken over  ;by Tinubu and handed over to Trojan Estate Ltd
– a company owned by Deji and Wale Tinubu – to develop as Royal Garden Housing
Estate, allegedly  ;at the expense of the taxpayers of Lagos.</p>



<p>Beside, there is
allegedly a  ;1,000 hectares of
land valued at about N75 billion
located at Lakowe near Abijo at Ibeju-Lekki Local Government and given to Lekki
Concession Company (LCC) which is partly- owned by Tinubu and being developed
as golf course and housing estate by Assets and Resource Management Ltd (ARM)
as ADIVA project.</p>



<p>The annex of the Lagos State Guest House in Asokoro, Abuja
was bought by the State Government in 2006 for N450 million, purportedly to
protect the main house from security breach. Shortly after Tinubu left office,
the property was transferred to him under the pension plan he signed into law
before leaving office.</p>



<p>This insight is a
clear indication that funding, which is a critical aspect of electoral project,
is the least of his worries should the tide favour him to contest the 2023
presidential race. </p>

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