How many are we?

As Buhari assumes 2nd term, it has become imperative to ask again how many we are in numbers given its importance for nation building

The Act establishing the commission, which is also in tandem with the United Nations commendations, is one act that has been grossly abused by successive governments. This is regrettably so given its core importance in the developmental plans in nation building.

As a matter of fact, the National Population Commission, NPC, the statutory body empowered to conduct head counts at stipulated interval has not been conducting census in the country every 10 years in line with regulation.

The National Population Commission (NPC) was established “as an independent and autonomous body to conduct regular censuses” in the country. According to the act establishing it, the “commission shall undertake the enumeration of the population of Nigeria periodically through censuses, sample surveys or otherwise.”

The first census conducted in part of Nigeria was in 1866, when British colonialists counted Nigerians only in the then Lagos colony. Another census took place in 1911 in both northern and southern protectorates.

The first nationwide census was conducted in 1921, seven years after the amalgamation of the northern and southern protectorates by the colonialists in 1914.

Following this, censuses were conducted in 1931, 1952, 1953, 1962, 1963 and 1973.

Another census took place in November 1991 and was conducted by the NPC.

At the end of the exercise the NPC put the population of Nigeria at 87.5million, contrary to the projected figure of 100 million people population put forward by the government and the World Bank among others.

Nigeria conducted her lastest census in 2006. The commission has described the irregular conduct of  census as unhealthy for the development of the country.

Opinion leaders have, at various times, lamented the dislocated census regime in Nigeria. They argue that for a society to move forward, it must, from time to time, review and amend existing laws to take care of emerging issues for the survival of that society.

At the moment, the commission has found herself at that crossroads where it must take that critical decision to review and amend its legislations to tackle pertinent current issues.

The commission was established to be the leading demographic agency in Africa, meeting the data needs of end users and ensuring robust population quality for national transformation and global competitiveness.

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. It reached an estimated 198 million people in 2018. According to the NPC, every year, the population of Nigeria grows at the rate of over 6 per cent.

The current population of Nigeria is 190 million, based on the latest National population estimates.

Nigeria population is equivalent to 2.6 per cent of the total world population. Nigeria ranks number seven in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population.

However, there is a limit to which any country should continue to rely on estimated population figures to plan its development initiatives and must thus have to conduct census to have the accurate data of its population, which would form the basis for national planning. But, NPC’s plans to conduct a head count to determine the actual population of the country since 2016 was not possible due to lack of funds.

The commission said that census could not be conducted in Nigeria due to lack of funds in the 2015 budget for the proposed 2016 census which eventually did not take place. The commission required N220billion to conduct the census.

The director general of the NPC, Dr Ghaji Ismail, said, with currency devaluation and inflation rates, the commission would require much more than N220billion to conduct a census in the country.

“How much will it cost? At this point in time it is going to be very difficult because there have been changes. It is not something you can say off hand but if we deduce from our previous submission in 2015 hoping that it would take place in 2016, a lot has changed in terms of currency devaluation but if we are to use the 2015 submission, we are looking at a submission of over N220 billion.”

Ismail said although the 2019 budget proposal had no provision for a census, a separate budget could be submitted for the exercise.

According to the DG, it was time to begin to speak about it since elections had already come to an end.

“Normally, it (census budget) is done within the wide service vote which is directly under the Presidency and therefore, when the proclamation is made by Mr. President. We are very hopeful because we have briefed him and we are very hopeful that this time around, having put the elections behind us, the President would look at the commission favourably so that we can undertake the net census because, without the consensus, there will be no planning.”

Ismail said the time had come for a law to be introduced which will give the NPC the mandate to hold census at regular intervals just as the Independent National Electoral Commission undertakes elections every four years.

He said that a bill had been submitted to the National Assembly to that effect which had passed the first reading but things slowed down because of the electioneering campaign for the 2019 general elections.

“We are conscious of the fact that the absence of a legislation has actually not done us any good because the absence of legislation leaves the decision to conduct census at the liberty or the vagaries of nature which means it is left to time and chance.

“We are working hard. In fact, we have conducted two rounds of in house review for a legal instrument to see that we push it forward. As we speak, we have proposed an amendment of the Act which is before the National Assembly. If I am not mistaken, it has gone through the first reading but elections came upon.”

Also speaking, the chairman of the commission, Hassan Bashir, said, the country is behind schedule for the next headcount after the 2006 Population and Housing Census and there is a limit beyond which estimates as opposed to raw data, cease to be useful indices in effective planning and execution of national development programmes.

“We confidently look forward that after these rounds of national elections, the next in the national priority will be the conduct of a National Census. We therefore, await Mr. President’s Proclamation any time soon which will definitely trigger a flurry of activities to enable the nation get over this national obligation once and for all,” the chairman said.

For now all eyes of the stakeholders are on President Muhammadu Buhari to see whether he would make a proclamation for a national census in the first half of his second term.