Global Temperatures: EU Identifies What Adds Further Heat To Climate

OpenLife News reports that the European Union’s climate monitor has identified what is adding further heat to an already warming planet — an exceptionally strong El Niño — as global temperatures in 2026 move “virtually certain” to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a monthly bulletin of the EU climate monitor, this year has a “20 percent chance of tying or exceeding” 2024 as the warmest ever seen.

The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5°C, the preferred limit set in the Paris Agreement to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

The world experienced its warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75°C above pre-industrial times, an era defined as 1850-1900, Copernicus added.

“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus.

“An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities,” she said.

El Niño Has Yet To Peak — And Its Effect Is Already Being Felt

Global forecasters have been warning for months that this El Niño, which is expected to peak later this year, would likely become the strongest ever observed.

The intensifying weather phenomenon set an all-time temperature record in a key Pacific zone last month, Copernicus said.

The warming phase of a natural climate cycle, El Niño temporarily raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, triggering changes in weather that can increase the risk of drought and flooding, and exacerbate man-made global warming.

Forecasters say El Niño could help make 2027 the hottest year on record.

The effect is already visible. The latest bulletin comes as nations prepare to meet on Monday for the UN’s two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey after a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, searing heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.

For ordinary people, this means more extreme heat, longer droughts in some regions, heavier flooding in others, failed crops, rising food prices, and greater pressure on health systems — especially in vulnerable countries in Africa, Asia and Small Island States.

1.5°C Target Slipping Away

Nations agreed at the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris to keep global warming “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

But the United Nations declared in September that the long-term 1.5°C target would be missed in a matter of years.

Scientists say it is crucial to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to limit the period of “overshoot” above 1.5°C and bring temperatures back down as quickly as possible.

_(AFP)_