2027: Tinubu Projected To Win 20 States, Atiku 9, Obi 8

2027: Tinubu Projected To Win 20 States, Atiku 9, Obi 8

 

OpenLife News reports that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been projected to win the 2027 presidential election with 20 states, ahead of Atiku Abubakar with 9 states and Peter Obi with 8 states, according to a new forecast by the Political Intelligence Group, PIG.

The projection, released on Monday, assessed the current political landscape and how the three major figures could perform if elections were held in September 2026.

Tinubu Projected To Win 20 States
PIG projects Tinubu as the leading candidate with 20 states, anchored by a clean sweep of the South-West.

“All six states in the South-West are projected to fall into his column,” the report stated.

Key projections for Tinubu include:
Lagos State: Projected to return to APC. Tinubu lost Lagos to Obi in 2023.
Kano State: Included among Tinubu’s projected wins. Kano is one of Nigeria’s largest voting blocs and would give him a major northern foothold.

The group noted that Tinubu’s eventual performance will depend on how Nigerians assess his administration by 2027 on economy, inflation, jobs, security, and cost of living.

“Religion and ethnicity could also play a role… although these factors compete with economic and political issues.”

Atiku Projected To Win 9 States

Former Vice President <strong>Atiku Abubakar is projected to win 9 states, with strength concentrated in Northern Nigeria.

States projected for Atiku include Kaduna and several states across the North-East and North-West.

PIG linked his support to his established political network and past campaigns. His stance on fuel subsidy could also be a campaign factor.

“If the high cost of transportation and living remains a major concern by 2027, such a promise could appeal to voters who want immediate relief.”

However, the group said voters may also question the financial sustainability of restoring subsidy.

Obi Projected To Win 8 States + FCT
Peter Obi of the NDC is projected to win 8 states, including the Federal Capital Territory and Edo State.

His support base reflects his 2023 performance, with appeal to voters seeking change, accountability and efficient government.

“His challenge could be expanding his support beyond the areas where he has historically performed strongly.”

“Projection Could Still Change”
PIG cautioned that the forecast is not final. It said new alliances, defections, choice of running mates, and party structures could alter the equation before 2027.

“The economy could improve or deteriorate. Petrol prices could become a bigger or smaller issue. New alliances could emerge, and candidates could gain or lose popularity.”

The group added that if opposition parties form a coalition, the numbers for Tinubu, Atiku and Obi could change dramatically.

For now, the projection places Tinubu 20, Atiku 9, Obi 8 if elections were conducted under current condition.