Nigeria 2027
OpenLife News reports that with strategists inside and outside Aso Rock already spreading the electoral map for 2027, the presidential contest is shaping up around four major names: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra Governor Peter Obi, and Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde.
While some States are increasingly seen as mini-Nigeria where victory confers legitimacy, the battle will be decided by how each candidate manages his core base and his vulnerabilities.
Nigeria’s Voting Strength By Registered Voters (2023 INEC Register)
The Kingmaker is indisputably North-West – with 22.6 Million votes (24.3%) with states comprising Kano (5.9m), Kaduna (4.3m), Katsina (3.5m), Sokoto, Jigawa, Zamfara, Kebbi
The Nigerian electoral Gatekeeper is South-West – with 18.3 Million votes (19.7%) comprising States: Lagos (7.1m), Oyo (3.3m), Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Ekiti
North-Central is Nigeria’s electoral Decider with – 15.3 Million votes representing (16.5%) with States: Benue, Niger (2.6m), Nasarawa, Kogi, Kwara, Plateau, FCT
South-South, the oil region has 14.4 Million, translating to 15.5% of Nigeria’s cumulative votes with States: Rivers (3.5m), Delta (3.3m), Akwa Ibom, Edo, Bayelsa, Cross River
North-East geo political zone has – 12.5 Million, translating to 13.5% with States: Bauchi (2.7m), Borno, Adamawa, Gombe, Taraba, Yobe.
The Igbo region called South-East has 10.9 Million, representing 11.7%. It is the smallest but with highest loyalty ration.
Total: 93.4 Million
The Winning Formula
Section 134 of Constitution says a candidate must win highest votes + 25% in 24 States.
So strategy is not just numbers, but spread.
Most Strategic Zones
1. North-West – No candidate can win without at least 25% in north west
This is 1/4 of all Nigerian votes.
In 2023 for instance, Tinubu won because he got 1.76m in NW while Obi got only 350k.
Strategic Value: If candidate gets 25% in Kano, Kaduna, Katsina alone, the candidate would have satisfied 3 states and blocked its major opponent from a first-ballot win.
2. NORTH-CENTRAL – The True Swing Zone
This is the only zone where no single tribe dominates. It is Christian-Muslim including mix of farmers and herders.
Whoever wins North-Central wins the popular narrative. It’s also where 25% is easiest to get.
3. South-West – The south west is a geo political zone where a candidate must break Lagos.
Lagos alone is 7.1m votes, bigger than entire SE states combined.
But SW has low turnout (27% in 2023). If candidate can raise turnout in Lagos from 27% to 40%, the candidate would have created 1 million extra votes.
4. South-South – is a geo political zone with the highest PVC collection rate. Rivers, Delta, Edo can deliver 70%+ bloc votes.
5. North-East zone always records low turnout.
Turnout is lowest here due to insurgency. Only 1.2m voted in Borno in 2023 despite 2.5m registered.
Any candidate who is able to garner 25% in Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba to meet constitutional requirement is good to go.
6. SOUTH-EAST – is called the Loyalty Bank because of its one way traffic of voting. It has the smallest numbers of States but can give all its 5 states with 80%+ votes at almost zero cost
Governor Seyi Makinde and 2031Projection
Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, according to analysts, may not be running to win 2027.
He is running to position for 2031. Here is his real strength and chance as people are talking about him.
Makinde has no opposition in Oyo.
He has 2nd term ending May 2027, paid salaries, built Ibadan Circular Road, Lekan Salami Stadium, and is the only governor doing monthly Omituntun Newsletter explaining governance. That gives him technocrat appeal.
2. Businessman, Not Professional Politician
Oil & gas engineer, not career politician. He pitches “Reset Nigeria” around petroleum pricing transparency, institution reform, economy.
In his recent newsletter he said Nigerians should not pay high petrol to stop smuggling, that border security is government work. This appeals to young professionals.
3. South-West Card
If Tinubu’s zoning argument is “South should finish 8 years”, Makinde says: “I am also Yoruba, from South-West, younger version.”
He can argue power should remain in South but move from Lagos to Ibadan.
His Weakness – Why He Will Struggle
1. Party Platform – APM
He is running under Allied Peoples Movement, APM, not PDP, not NDC, not APC. APM has zero structure outside Oyo. INEC has no polling agents, no ward chairmen. You cannot win presidency with APM.
Oyo APC says he will finish “distant 8th position” if he gets on ballot.
2. No Northern Footprint
Presidency in Nigeria needs North-West and North-East. Makinde has posters in Bauchi and Oyo, but no political sons in Kano, Sokoto, Borno.
Kwankwaso has Kano, Atiku has Adamawa, Obi now has Kwankwaso. Makinde has former Director General of Department of State Service, DSS, Daura Lawal from Katsina State.
The security expert doesn’t seem to be pulling much weight in the north.
3. Money vs Structure
Oyo APC accuses him of using state funds to promote ambition, says “he does not possess the wherewithal to slug it out with Tinubu.” Even his supporter, analyst Yusuf told Legit.ng: “His presidential ambition is in its infancy… it is still water weight… He is playing the long game.”
4. Timing
He leaves office May 2027, election is Feb 2027. He is still a sitting governor during campaign. INEC law will force him to either resign or use deputy. Plus SW votes are already locked by Tinubu.
Realistic Chances:
Runs alone under APM, gets 200k-400k votes mostly from Oyo and some diaspora, finishes 5th-8th, but becomes relevant for 2031 as the face of “young Southern technocrat.
Prediction
As presidential candidate in 2027, chance of winning 5% is high which would enable him, as APM leader, negotiate as 2031 frontrunner with 70 % chances of becoming very powerful VP.
Despite all this, Makinde declared last Monday in Ibadan while receiving APC defectors to APM: “God has signed off on what we are doing… We will win massively in all elections in 2027.”
That’s campaign talk. The real game is after 2027.
Peter Obi
As of today, the Obi-Kwankwaso NDC ticket is currently leading in almost every independent sentiment tracker and poll circulating:
1. SBM Intelligence Voter Sentiment Tracker – May 2026 [Most Credible]
This is the most referenced national poll with ∼1,000 respondents across 6 zones.
NDC (Obi-Kwankwaso): 57.4% voting intention nationally
APC (Tinubu-Shettima): 11.3%
ADC {Atiku-Amaechi}: 10.3%
Undecided: 11.3%
Under Low turnout scenario: NDC drops to 31.7%
Under High turnout scenario: NDC rises to 64.9% .
SBM noted that the Southeast, South-South and North-Central show highest enthusiasm for NDC, while Southwest (Tinubu base) has lowest turnout intention.
2. Babachir Lawal Rating – Ex-SGF
Former SGF Babachir Lawal on Symfoni TV paired them himself:
Obi-Kwankwaso ticket: 70% chance of winning
Tinubu: 50%
Atiku: 0%
He said “Individually will be disaster, but I’m pairing them. So I’ll give them, on my scale, close to like 70 per cent.”
3. Data Strategist Model – Blessing Oladeji
Nigeria Data strategist said on The Volume Pod:
“If you have Peter Obi and Kwankwaso on the ballot, their victory margin will be about 53%,” based on nationwide sampling, grassroots popularity, youth support, regional balance and public trust.
4. Online Polls
X poll by @CaptJamyl showed Obi-Kwankwaso under NDC leading Tinubu with strong engagement for “A New Nigeria is Possible” slogan.
Analysts caution X polls reflect online enthusiasm more than full electorate.
What Galadima / NDC says:
NDC Chieftain Buba Galadima said both are “on the same page” and harmonizing blueprints, claiming Obi can take 75% in SE and SS, take Lagos, 25% North-Central, 20% North-East, 15% North-West to win.
On perception and current polls, Obi-Kwankwaso is rated #1 as Most Desired Ticket in 2027 — ahead of Tinubu-Shettima and Atiku-Amaechi combinations — but SBM warns it depends 100% on high voter turnout. Low turnout brings them down to 31%.
Atiku
Atiku Abubakar in 2027 has been described as the Last Battle of a Political General.
If 2023 was Atiku Abubakar’s 6th attempt, 2027 will be his 7th and likely final attempt.
At 80 years old by election day, this is do-or-die. And unlike Makinde, Atiku is not playing long game – he knows he has no long game.
His Strength
Major reasons cannot be written off are:
1. The Only Man With a Truly National Structure
Atiku is the only opposition politician who has contested in all 6 zones and still has foot soldiers everywhere.
From Adamawa to Anambra to Abia to Akwa Ibom. His structure is called “The Atiku Organization” and it has existed since 1999.
No other opposition figure, not even Obi, has that.
In 2023, even after losing, he still polled 6.9 million votes. He won Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Kaduna (554k), Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Osun, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara – 12 states.
No other candidate won up to 12 states except Tinubu.2. North-East + North-West Lock
Atiku’s zone, North-East, is the most loyal zone in Nigeria for their sons. He got 20% in NE in 2023 despite insurgency and low turnout. In North-West, he got 1.6 million votes, second only to Tinubu’s 1.7m. If Kwankwaso didn’t run as president, Atiku would have inherited 70% of Kano’s NNPP votes automatically because those voters are anti-APC.
3. The Northern Consensus Candidate
The entire Northern political establishment that is angry with Tinubu over subsidy removal, tax reform, and alleged Yorubaization of appointments sees Atiku as the only one who can defeat Tinubu head-to-head.
That’s why Babachir Lawal said “Atiku zero” – not because Atiku is weak, but because Northern elders fear if Atiku wins, he will also do 8 years and power won’t return to Central/South.
But behind closed doors, Emirate Council, retired Generals, Northern business elite prefer Atiku to Obi.
Obi is seen as Southern Christian. Atiku is seen as “our own.”
4. Money and International Network
Atiku has the deepest pockets after Tinubu. American University, Intels, logistics, Dubai network.
He can fund polling agents in 176,846 units without blinking.
He also has US/UK contacts who still see him as pro-business.
His Weakness And Why 2027 May Be Harder Than 2023
1. Age and Perception
At 80, the “Emilokan” argument that worked for Tinubu will be used against him.
Youth voters, who are 65% of registered voters, see him as part of the old order. SBM Intelligence gave him only 10.3% in their NDC vs APC vs ADC poll.
That is a collapse from 29% he got in 2023.
2. The Obi Factor That Refuses to Go Away
In 2019, Atiku got 85% in South-East. In 2023, after Obi left PDP, Atiku got less than 15% in South-East and South-South combined.
Peter Obi has permanently taken his Southern base.
3.Atiku cannot win with North alone. He needs South-South and South-East, but those zones now call him “Fulani oligarch.”
Even his running mate in 2023, Ifeanyi Okowa, lost his own polling unit in Delta.
In 2023, 9 PDP governors worked for him. In 2027, he doesn’t have any governor may have 1 or 2.4. Constitutional Spread Problem
Section 134 requires 25% in 24 states.
In 2023, Atiku got 25% in 21 states only, even with PDP.
4.With Obi and Kwankwaso now together under NDC, Atiku’s votes in Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Rivers will be split.
He may struggle to get 25% in 18 states in 2027.
5. Court Cases and Integrity Question
The “Atiku is corrupt” narrative, whether true or not, still sticks. The “Atiku Server” story of 2019, his Dubai stay, his children in US – APC uses it to demarket him in the North as “not always around.
His Chances Are Tied To Three Scenarios
Scenario A: Atiku vs Obi vs Tinubu (3-way race)
Atiku finishes 3rd. Tinubu 35%, Obi-Kwankwaso 40%, Atiku 20%.
Atiku splits North-West with Obi-Kwankwaso and gives Tinubu victory on first ballot.
This is the worst scenario for opposition.
Scenario B: Atiku steps down for Obi-Kwankwaso (Consensus)
If Atiku backs Obi-Kwankwaso NDC ticket as Babachir Lawal suggests, he becomes kingmaker.
He can negotiate Senate President or control of high level of power for his group.
He keeps relevance and avoids final disgrace. This is what Babachir meant by “Atiku zero” – zero chance if he runs alone.
Scenario C
Atiku has picked a Southern Christian VP, Rt.Honourable Rotimi Amaechi.
He may get 25% in South-South but still loses South-East.
Strength
Still the biggest political general in the North, with national structure, money, and elite support.
Atiku’s real decision is not whether he can win, but whether he wants to end his career as a 3-time loser who handed Tinubu a second term, or as the elder statesman who sacrificed for a united opposition.
For now, he is still telling his people: “I will run.” But inside the NDC, the calculation is: Atiku is too heavy to fly, but too big to ignore.
Tinubu
Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027: The Incumbent Nobody Loves, But Everybody Fears
Tinubu in 2027 is the most difficult candidate to predict. He is the weakest incumbent since 1999 on paper, but the strongest incumbent in terms of machinery.
Here is the real picture:
His Strength – Why He May Still Win
1. Power of Incumbency is Insane in Nigeria
No sitting President with full control of INEC, Police, Army, DSS, CBN and NNPC has ever lost in Nigeria.
Jonathan lost in 2015 because his own party, PDP, split into nPDP and joined APC. Tinubu’s APC is not splitting – Wike, Ganduje, Akpabio are holding it.
31 of 36 Governors are either APC or pro-Tinubu.
All security agencies, NNPCL and CBN for last-minute spending
2. South-West is Locked
In 2023, Tinubu got 1.2m in South-West despite Obi winning Lagos. In 2027, with Lagos at 7.1m registered voters, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti all APC, he will not lose SW.
Seyi Makinde can only take Oyo, not Lagos.
Even if Obi wins Lagos again, Tinubu will still get 25% in all 6 SW states easily.
3. North-West is Negotiable
Tinubu lost Kano and Kaduna in 2023 but won with low margin.
Now El-Rufai is fighting him, but Ganduje, Barau, Ribadu are with him. He has given North-West Defence Minister, Agriculture, and massive palliatives.
4. He is a Master of Last-Minute Coalition
Tinubu does not win on election day, he wins 3 months before election day. He buys structure.
In 2023, he bought Labour Party executives in 15 states in the last 2 weeks. In 2027, insiders say that plans are underway to penetrate the NDC and ADC ranks to pset the equation.
His mantra: “If you can’t beat them with votes, scatter their votes.”
5. Economy May Bounce Back Before Feb 2027
Removal of subsidy and floating Naira caused inflation to 34% in 2024. But by mid-2026, inflation is now dropping to 22%, rice from N120k to N75k, and refinery working. If by December 2026, petrol is N700 and dollar is N1,200, average voter will say “At least e dey improve small.
“His Weakness – Why He is Vulnerable1. SBM Says 11.3% – The Most Unpopular President in Polls Since 1999
SBM Intelligence Voter Sentiment Tracker May 2026 gave Tinubu 11.3% vs NDC’s 57.4%.
That is not just losing, that is a collapse. It shows even APC voters are angry.
Reason:Cost of living: Garri, rice, beans tripled since 2023
Tax Reform: New tax bill seen as anti-North and anti-poorNepotism: “Yorubanization” allegation – Oloyede as Chief of Army Staff removed, replaced by another SW, Finance, CBN, Customs, FIRS all SW
Insecurity: Benue, Plateau, Zamfara killings continued despite new security chiefs
2. The North Has Abandoned Him.
In 2023, Tinubu got 1.7m in North-West and 1.1m in North-East. Today, Arewa Consultative Forum says North will not vote APC.
Babachir Lawal gave Tinubu 50% vs Obi-Kwankwaso 70%.
The North feels betrayed:Subsidy removal without cushion for farmers
Power sharing: Only 3 of 20 top positions to North-East.
El-Rufai, his former ally, is now leading opposition from Kaduna.
Without North-West and North-East, Tinubu cannot get 25% in 24 states.
In 2023, he got 25% in 29 states. In 2027, projection shows he may struggle to get 20 states.
3. Age and Health
Tinubu will be 75 by election. Frequent medical trips to Paris, long speeches confusion, and the 2023 “Balablu” clips are still used by opposition.
Obi-Kwankwaso are 65 and 68 – they look healthier on TV debate.
4. Lagos Loss Proved He is Beatable
Obi beating Tinubu in Lagos in 2023 broke the myth. If you can beat a god in his temple, you can beat him anywhere. That psychological win made youth believe “Tinubu can be defeated.”
SBM says high turnout scenario pushes NDC to 64.9% because youth will come out if they believe they can win.
5. The 25% Trap
Tinubu’s biggest weakness is constitutional spread. With Obi-Kwankwaso together taking South-East, South-South, North-Central, and part of North-West and South-West, Tinubu may win South-West and part of North-West but fail to get 25% in South-East (where he got 2% in 2023), South-South and North-Central.
That forces a runoff.
If election goes to runoff, which Nigeria has never had, Northern votes will consolidate against him.
Runoff is Tinubu’s nightmare.
His Chances – Three Scenarios
Scenario A: Low Turnout (Like 2023 – 27%)
Tinubu wins. His structure can rig, buy votes, and mobilize 2m in Lagos, 1m in Kano, 800k in Rivers through Wike. Opposition youth stay home because “INEC will rig.” APC wins with 36-38% like 2023.Scenario
B: High Turnout (55%+)
Tinubu loses. If 50 million vote instead of 25 million, SBM says NDC gets 64.9%. Youth, market women, angry farmers all vote.
Security agencies cannot suppress 50 million. He loses Lagos, Kaduna, Kano, Rivers, Abuja, Plateau, Benue.
He may even fail to get 25% in 24 states.
That is the map. North-West for numbers, North-Central for swing, South-West to break APC. The rest are base.
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