Goodluck Jonathan Speaks
OpenLife Nigeria reports that as Cambodia holds a parliamentary election on Sunday, July 23, global leaders and citizens are curious over the predictable outcome of the election.
What makes the election special, in the estimation of public affairs analysts, is that it would be the last one for Hun Sen, the Southeast Asian country’s eternal dictator who is the country’s prime minister.
Hun Sen — who is always referred to by his full name — has been calling all the shots in Cambodia in various capacities since 1985. Asia’s longest-serving leader came to power when his country was still recovering from the trauma of the Khmer Rouge regime, which exterminated a quarter of the population in the mid-1970s.
But after almost 40 years in charge, the septuagenarian says that after the vote he’ll hand over the reins to his son, Hun Manet.
Hun Manet, who, without doubt, is Cambodia’s next Prime Minister is 45 years old and currently serves as the country’s army chief.
Hun Manet obtained a United Kingdom, UK and United States of America, US education — including a stint at West Point.
He made a name for himself by negotiating peace with neighboring Thailand when the two countries almost went to war over a disputed border temple in 2011. Since then, his dad has been grooming him to be his successor.
Curiously, what is playing out in Cambodia is in line with dynastic succession which is fairly common in Southeast Asia, where name recognition is often the only game in town and political dynasties can rule their fiefdoms for decades.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Singapore are countries in the south east Asia that have all had second-generation leaders.
Still, Cambodia will be the first nation in which the post goes directly from father to son — like the Kims in North Korea.
But, in the event that the succession from father to son is accomplished, Hun Manet will inherit a highly personalized patronage system in which the immensely wealthy elite often have competing interests. No one knows if a princeling barely tested in political battles will have Hun Sen’s chops to keep rifts at bay within the ruling party.
And no matter how weak the opposition and how well-planned his succession has been, it won’t be smooth sailing for the 45 years old Hun Manet.
Also, Cambodia’s GDP growth has been lagging as the economy is too reliant on its low-cost labor force and the tourism industry, hit hard by COVID.
Hun Sen’s authoritarian vibes have turned Cambodia into a pariah state for the West, limiting its ability to trade with the EU and the US despite his recent efforts to patch things up with Brussels and Washington.
Even recently, Hun Sen quit Facebook after Meta threatened to ban him for sharing violent content. His father, Hun Manet now has the most Facebook friends in the country.
Xi Jinping’s Influence
One country that wants everything to go without a hitch is China. Cambodia is Beijing’s closest friend in the region, often to the dismay of other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Cambodia has sided with China in ASEAN squabbles over the South China Sea and hosts a not-so-secret Chinese naval base.
When he takes charge, Xi Jinping hopes that strong son Hun Manet will be as reliably pro-China as his strongman dad. If he is, Xi will have his back.
Jonathan in Cambodia
Tested democrat and Nigeria’s former president, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is currently in Cambodia in his capacity as a member of the International Advisory Board of European Corporate Council on Africa and Middle East.
He is expected to monitor the Cambodia’s parliamentary elections as well as attend International Leadership and Democracy Summit.
Disclosing this on his Facebook wall, Jonathan who expressed optimism said:
I arrived in Phnom Penh today ahead of Cambodia’s parliamentary elections and a scheduled International Leadership and Democracy Summit to a warm reception from Cambodian authorities, the Universal Peace Federation (UPF) and Nigerian Embassy officials.
I thank Secretary of State, H.E. Chum Sounry who led the Cambodian government delegation, Dr. Charles Yang, Chair UPF International, H.E. Folakemi Akinleye, Nigerian ambassador to Phillipines with concurrent accreditation to Cambodia, Ambassador Nasiru Aminu in Ethiopia, Amb. Oma Djeba in Thailand as well as officials from Nigerian embassies in Addis Ababa and Thailand for the amazing courtesies.
I look forward to engaging sessions at the Democracy and Leadership Summit and a successful July 23, 2023 Cambodian elections.
-GEJ
The country
Cambodia is country on the Indochinese mainland of Southeast Asia and largely a land of plains and great rivers and lies amid important overland with its capital in Phnom Penh.
The country operates a constitutional monarchy with two legislative houses (Senate; National Assembly as its form of government with a population of about 16,493,000 (2023 estimate.}
The ruling party, however, controls all 125 seats in parliament. Opposition parties are banned. Political dissidents are silent, fearful that speaking out against the government might be followed by an unfortunate road accident.
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