Why Tinubu May Not Win 2027
OpenLife News reports that a serving northern APC Senator has warned that President Bola Tinubu may not win the 2027 presidential election due to unending insecurity in the country.
The Senator, who spoke with OpenLife News on condition of anonymity on Saturday afternoon, said insecurity has become the biggest apprehension gripping the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, especially in the north.
“I am an APC Senator. But I can tell you that our greatest apprehension is this unending insecurity in Nigeria,” he said.
“I am from the north and stakeholders are angry. Even the talakawas are all angry with our Party, APC.
“Assuming President Tinubu is able to address insecurity, the story would have been different today. He could not manage ECOWAS and it split.
“He is not able to manage insecurity and the country is in a mess.“APC may not win 2027,” he declared.
His warning comes at a time when insecurity is fast becoming a major electoral vulnerability for the Tinubu administration, with kidnappings, killings and mass abductions dominating daily life.
The latest incident occurred on October 1, when gunmen attacked buses near Umunoha in Mbaitoli Local Government Area of Imo State and abducted prospective NYSC corps members travelling to orientation camp.
Twenty of them were rescued six days later.The attack, involving young Nigerians on a journey meant to symbolise national unity, has raised a bigger political question: how safe are Nigerians on the roads they must use?
While the administration declared a nationwide security emergency in 2025, expanded recruitment, redeployed police officers from VIP protection, backed forest guards and proposed N5.41 trillion for defence and security in the 2026 budget, Nigerians still experience insecurity personally — when children leave for school, farmers go to farm, traders travel, or families wait for abducted relatives.
Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) shows mass kidnappings averaged at least 100 incidents per quarter in 2025, compared with fewer than 70 per quarter in 2026 so far. Armed bandits accounted for more than 80 per cent of recorded mass abductions since early 2025, with ransom increasingly financing violence.
But experts say rescue is not prevention.“Finding a kidnappers’ camp is not the same as preventing an abduction. Rescuing hostages is not the same as arresting abductors.
Arresting suspects is not the same as dismantling the networks, financiers, informants and routes that make another attack possible,” a security analyst noted.
The Imo episode also raised operational questions about intelligence sharing, route vulnerability and speed of response.
Human rights lawyer and activist, Deji Adeyanju, aid in Abuja that insecurity could become a serious political challenge for Tinubu because its consequences are deeply personal for Nigerians.“Insecurity is not simply a question of statistics or the number of attacks recorded,” Adeyanju said.
He blamed uncoordinated counter-terrorism strategies, alleged military corruption and disconnect from grassroots realities.
His observation reinforces the Senator’s fear. In the North-East, insurgency and election-related violence persist. In the North-West, banditry and mass kidnapping dominate.
The North-Central faces attacks on farming communities, while parts of the South-East and South-South contend with road kidnappings and criminal networks.
A Yiaga Africa survey found that while 84 per cent of respondents were willing to vote, 61 per cent said fear of violence could prevent them from doing so, with the figure rising to 78 per cent in the North-East.
Analysts say insecurity may not automatically deliver votes to the opposition, but it could lead to punishment of the incumbent, declining confidence, or voter apathy in insecure areas.
For Tinubu to change the narrative before 2027, experts say he must turn security spending into tangible results — safer highways, fewer abductions, disruption of kidnapping finances, and prosecutions.
For now, as the APC Senator warned, the anger in the north — from stakeholders to the talakawas — may be the clearest sign that insecurity alone could cost the APC victory in 2027.
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